The BEA released US real GDP growth of +3.0% QoQ (SaaR) for Q2, after -0.5% QoQ in Q1 2025.

The negative impact of net exports in Q1, which was due to a front loading of purchases ahead of Trump tariffs announced in early April, completely reversed in Q2. Moreover, personal consumption grew by a faster rate of +1.4% QoQ in Q2, versus +0.5% in Q1.

This further reinforces our view that there is no recession in sight for the US economy. Moreover, the US economy grew at a +1.3% run-rate in H1, and should do a bit better in H2 with the incoming tax cuts as well as potential Fed rate cuts which should come as of the September FOMC.

We continue to think the US economy can accelerate its growth to above +2.0% in 2026, with Bessent pushing forward the administration “3 3 3” economic policy.